Our Reluctance to "Be Prepared"

Boy Scouts have been familiar with the motto, "Be Prepared" for darn near a century. Americans have been told to be prepared for twice as long. Basic survival necessitates that we be prepared, yet shockingly (but not surprisingly) - most Americans are not.

We spend money on houses we can't afford, more cars than we need, junk food, expensive electronics, pedicures, entertainment, pharmaceuticals, self-help and cable TV pay-per-view movies. So, why can't we spend a few hundred bucks (over time) to set aside basic food supplies and water?

We have been warned, and warned again. There have been massive tsunamis, earthquakes and floods everywhere in the world. Then, last year, we got a serious warning as one of our great cities was utterly destroyed by a hurricane. Yet, we still say, "all is well!" No one thinks it can happen to them.

From a spiritual perspective, we have been warned by a Prophet of God. From a literal perspective, God Himself has warned us in the form of these calamities. If we continue to ignore all of these warnings we have witnessed - we only sow the seeds of our own destruction. PREPARE NOW!!

For a sad commentary on our laziness in being prepared, here are some excerpts from a TIME article that was released today:

Historically, humans get serious about avoiding disasters only after one has just smacked them across the face. Well, then, by that logic, 2006 should have been a breakthrough year for rational behavior. With the memory of 9/11, the worst terrorist attack in U.S. history, still fresh in their minds, Americans watched Katrina, the most expensive disaster in U.S. history, on live TV. Anyone who didn't know it before should have learned that bad things can happen. And they are made much worse by our own lack of ambition--our willful blindness to risk as much as our reluctance to work together before everything goes to hell.

[...]

In the 12 months since Katrina, the rest of the U.S. has not proved to be a quicker study than the Gulf Coast. There is still no federal law requiring state and local officials to plan for the evacuation of the sick, elderly, disabled or poor. But in the past few months, both houses of Congress triumphantly passed bills that require locals to plan for the evacuation of pets.

[...]

But it's not just bureaucrats who are unprepared for calamity. Regular people are even less likely to plan ahead. In this month's TIME poll, about half of those surveyed said they had personally experienced a natural disaster or public emergency. But only 16% said they were "very well prepared" for the next one. Of the rest, about half explained their lack of preparedness by saying they don't live in a high-risk area.

In fact, 91% of Americans live in places at a moderate-to-high risk of earthquakes, volcanoes, tornadoes, wildfires, hurricanes, flooding, high-wind damage or terrorism, according to an estimate calculated for TIME by the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute at the University of South Carolina. But Americans have a tendency to be die-hard optimists, literally. It is part of what makes the country great--and vincible. "There are four stages of denial," says Eric Holdeman, director of emergency management for Seattle's King County, which faces a significant earthquake threat. "One is, it won't happen. Two is, if it does happen, it won't happen to me. Three: if it does happen to me, it won't be that bad. And four: if it happens to me and it's bad, there's nothing I can do to stop it anyway."

This time, they're serious.

So, no armageddon after all. Instead, Iran say's they're ready for "serious" talks. What in the world does that mean? The statement alone proves their complete indifference to international law. Obviously, nothing was taken seriously in Iran before today. But you know what, the UN and the international community has brought this kind of response on their own heads. If we're not gonna get serious with Iran, then why bother threatening them at all?

The AP reports:

TEHRAN, Iran. Iran's top nuclear negotiator said Tuesday that Tehran was ready to enter "serious negotiations" over its disputed nuclear program but did not say whether it was willing to suspend uranium enrichment _ the West's key demand.

The negotiator, Ali Larijani, hand-delivered Iran's response to a six- nation package of nuclear incentives aimed at persuading it to suspend enrichment. He gave the reply to ambassadors from Britain, China, Russia, France, Germany and Switzerland, state-run television said, without disclosing details.

"Iran is prepared as of Aug. 23 to enter serious negotiations" with the countries that proposed the package, state-run television quoted Larijani as telling the envoys.

Iranian officials close to the meeting said Iran offered a "new formula" to resolve the dispute as part of its formal response to the incentive package. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.

"Iran has provided a comprehensive response to everything said in the Western package. In addition, Iran, in its formal response, has asked some questions to be answered," one official said, without elaborating.

European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said Iran's response needs a "detailed and careful analysis," EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said.

In a statement, Solana said he would remain "in open contact" with Larijani.

Today is the Day

Will Iran bring us terror and war, or will it simply give the West more of the same doublespeak we've been hearing for years? Will Iran, after having raised worldwide alarm over it's ambiguous statements regarding 8/22, simply respond to the world by saying: We are open to negotiation but we will not negotiate on our nuclear enrichment? After the perceived threats, this would come as a relief to many - taking the spotlight (once again) off their nuclear ambitions. We will see.

From CNN:

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iran has given its formal answer to a package of incentives offered by the U.N. Security Council's five permanent members plus Germany in exchange for halting its uranium enrichment program, according to Iranian media.

It said Ali Larijani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, handed the response to ambassadors from Germany, France, Britain, Russia, China and Switzerland in Tehran on Tuesday afternoon, according to Iran's state-run Arabic-language Al-Alam television, Reuters reported. It did not give details of the reply.

Switzerland, which is not a member of the U.N. Security Council, is representing the interests of the United States because Washington does not have diplomatic relations with Iran.

Iran still has until the end of the month to formally respond to a U.N. resolution demanding it stop its nuclear program and allow full inspections, or face economic sanctions.

Iranian officials in recent days have already rejected the U.N. resolution, saying they are within their rights to build a nuclear energy program despite fears from the West that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons.

The Final Hours

Let's hope Ahmadinejad's "answer to the world" doesn't amount to anything. But if he is as crazy as some people believe, then tonight, on the eve of August 22, things could turn very ugly, very fast.

ABC News:

While no extra safeguards are in place, U.S. law enforcement are not ignoring the possible significance of tomorrow's date, August 22, a date that marks an important historic event on the Islamic calendar.

Internet websites have been full of speculation that it could be a target date for terrorists in commemoration of the return of the 12th imam, a supposed day of reckoning for Shiites.

August 22 was rumored by intelligence experts to be a possible date that the London plotters would blow-up passenger planes headed towards the United States, though it is not known if the suspects were Shiite extremists.

This year, August 22 marks the holy day on the Islamic calendar that is the day of reckoning for Shiites. Some Shiite sects believe that August 22 could correspond to the end of the world. And just today, after much hype, Iran has announced that it will continue to develop its nuclear program. To followers of Iranian President Ahmadinejad, this is a well-timed affront to Israel, the United States and the world. The United Nations had given Iran until the end of the month to respond, but Ahmadinejad had made it clear to all Iranians and the world that he intended to respond on the eve of August 22.

Whether or not this announcement is the end of Ahmadinejad's plans for August 22, one expert says we will have to wait and watch.

"The only thing we can know is that the date was not chosen by accident," said Robert Spencer, Director of Jihadwatch.org and an adjunct fellow at the Free Congress Foundation, a conservative think tank. "It does seem very likely, very probable, that he has something major in mind, whether only a major announcement or a major attack, we will soon see."

Watch and Be Ready

We're getting closer to Iran's "Day of Happiness" on August 22. I have discussed the significance of that date on this blog for several weeks, and now it is upon us. And what's more, many people around the world (including prominent experts and news organizations) are seeing this Tuesday as the possible starting point for WWIII. Hopefully, it will amount to something far less dramatic and I will be proved wrong. For once, I would welcome looking like a fool.

However, the evidence is pointing to something big on the horizon, something that will change the way in which we view the world. Let's look at some of the hard facts:

• Iran is currently engaging in large military exercises. In the past, military "excersises" have been used as cover for war preparations.
• North Korea is preparing for a possible missile launch, and/or a nuclear test. Iran and North Korea have been working on nuclear technology and missiles for years.
• Israel's military has been weakened by the recent struggle with Hezbollah (backed by Iran). Israel is typically seen as a natural military check to any Iranian agression in the region.

There are a lot of things in place that are very favorable to Iran doing something very stupid. I'll post more tomorrow as I get additional information.

Bush: North Korea Poses a Threat

More on the possible North Korean nuclear tests:

CAMP DAVID, Md (Reuters) - President George W. Bush on Friday warned that North Korea would pose a threat to the world if it tested a nuclear bomb for the first time, following reports that the reclusive government was considering such a move.

Bush also pressed participants in six-party talks to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear-weapons program, while a senior U.S. official played down the chances of an early nuclear test.

"If North Korea were to conduct a test, it's just a constant reminder for people in the neighborhood, in particular, that North Korea poses a threat," Bush said at the Camp David presidential retreat. "We expect our friends and those sitting around the table with us to act in such a manner as to help rid the world of the threat."

View Entire Article

North Korea Appears to Be Preparing for Nuclear Test

This is a BIG deal. It also ties in with what I've been saying about Iran (since the two are cooperating on nuclear programs). I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a nuclear test in both North Korea and Iran on August 22.

Aug. 17, 2006 — There is new evidence that North Korea may be preparing to for an underground test of nuclear bomb, U.S. officials tell ABC News.

"It is the view of the intelligence community that a test is real possibility," says a senior State Department official.

A senior military official tells ABC News that a U.S. intelligence agency has recently observed "suspicious vehicle movement" at a suspected North Korean test site.

Continue reading the ABC News Article.

Iran to Launch Major Military Exercise

In what many (including me) see as a parallel to Hitler's summer of 1939, Iran has announced major military exercises that will begin on Saturday, August 19th, and have no forseeable ending in sight, the AP reports. All signs in my eyes point to something big on August 22nd, as I have been warning all along. I hope I'm wrong.

Iran will launch a series of large-scale military maneuvers across the country and has not made plans for an end to the ongoing war games, the army said Thursday.

"The maneuvers are aimed at introducing Iran's new defensive doctrine," military spokesman Gen. Mohammad Reza Ashtiani was quoted as saying by state-run television.

He said the exercises would begin on Saturday in the south east of the country. "It will continue in the whole of Iran, stage by stage for an unspecified period," Ashtiani said.

The announcement came as Iran faces heightened international scrutiny because of its contentious nuclear program and for supporting the Lebanese Hizbullah guerrillas.

Iran denies Israeli accusations it is arming and training Hizbullah fighters.

Ashtiani praised Hizbullah for its month-long fight against Israel. "Human forces can decide fate of a war. We saw it in Lebanon," the general said, echoing Hizbullah claims it won the war by resisting a massive bombing and ground offensive for more than a month before a UN-brokered cease-fire came into place earlier this week.

The military spokesman said Iran's maneuvers reflected the current level of tension in the Middle East. "We have to be prepared against any threat and we should be a role model for other countries," local newspapers quoted Gen. Ashtiani, as saying. "Our army is ready to defuse all plots against Islamic Republic of Iran."

The military exercise, involving 12 infantry regiments, is called "The Blow of Zolfaghar," in reference to a sword that belonged to Imam Ali, one of the most revered figures of Islam for Shi'ite Muslims. A majority of Iran's 70 million people are Shi'ite.

On Wednesday, the Interior Ministry said that Iran also plans to boost security patrols on its borders.

Ministry spokesman Mostafa Pourmohammadi said the move targeted smugglers. Drug traffickers killed 8 police officers during a firefight in southeastern Iran last week.

Iran has routinely held war games over the past two decades to improve its combat readiness and test locally made equipment such as missiles, tanks and armored personnel carriers. In April, Teheran launched its biggest military maneuvers so far, during which it said it tested several advanced weaponry including missiles.

Nukes at Our Ports

I hate to say it because it's been said so many times before... But, this situation is not a matter of if - it's a matter of when. And now we have a better picture of the devastation that would result if a nuclear bomb was detonated at the Port of Long Beach, one of the busiest in the country.

Here is the news article:

Rand: Port Blast Would Be Devastating

A nuclear explosion at the Port of Long Beach could kill 60,000 people immediately, expose 150,000 more to hazardous radiation and cause 10 times the economic loss of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, according to a new Rand Corp. study.

The study released Tuesday by the Santa Monica-based think tank was the latest to address concerns about the possible vulnerability of the nation's ports.

It analyzed the possible effects of terrorists detonating a 10-kiloton nuclear bomb in a shipping container unloaded onto a Long Beach pier.

In addition to the human casualties, such a blast might destroy the infrastructure and every ship at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, which together handle about one-third of the nation's imports, the study said. Damage at port-area refineries could create critical shortages.

The two ports have taken steps to tighten security.

Last September, the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles received the second- and third-largest security grants from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, $12.7 million and $11.4 million, respectively. The money is to go for protecting ports from small craft and underwater attacks and enhance explosive detection capabilities.

Efforts are also under way to design a facility within the Port of Los Angeles where agents could thoroughly inspect suspicious cargo.

Currently, customs officials screen cargo with radiation monitors and X-ray machines at the docks then truck suspicious containers to a warehouse six miles away for closer inspections.

Click HERE for link.

Iran, August 22 and the Apocalypse

I believe that Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is a radical with apocalyptic visions of grandeur.

For starters, Ahmadinejad has expressed on more than one occasion his devout belief that he is in direct communication with heaven about his policies. Now normally, I would write this off as pandering to a pious audience. However, there are many interests at work in Iran besides fanaticism, so it would profit Ahmadinejad little to cater to the zealots.

Also, the crazy remarks attributed to Ahmadinejad go back to his days as a mayor, and even further to his radical youth - where he participated (albeit in a minor role) in the American Embassy hostage taking in 1979. So, to say he is only doing this to appear tough is misleading. He's been walking the walk and talking the talk all of his adult life.

On top of all of this, Ahmadinejad belongs to a small subset of Shiite Muslims who believe in the return of the Hidden Imam. Even the ultra-radical Ayatollah has had to rein in some of Ahmandinejad's comments regarding this particular faith. An interesting note about this Hidden Imam - believers view his return to the way Christians view the return of Christ. That is, that he will return amid a great world struggle to fight on behalf of the righteous and hasten a day of eternal happiness. The big difference (well, one of many really) between this and Christianity is that the Hidden Imam's believers follow the belief that they can actually bring about his return by spinning the world into chaos. In fact, believers claim it to be their duty. So, that Ahmadinejad is one of these believers should be of great concern to the western world.

Does Iran have nukes? That is the million dollar question. The Israelis predicted he would be armed in 6 months - about 6 months ago. While this is open to debate, that Iran has formed close ties with North Korea is not. And there is general consensus that Kim Jong Il does, in fact, possess nuclear weapons. So, does Iran have some of that North Korean sweet stuff? If they do, I would expect an announcement to such effect on August 22nd.

Finally, the real proof about Ahmadinejad's intentions are in his actions. He's funding Hezbollah, forging defense compacts with Syria and calling for the destruction of Israel. Given his personal make-up, I'm inclined to believe that he is serious about doing something to back up his words.

August 22 approaches ominously, indeeed.