The Iranian End Game

What is up with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?

Iran’s fanatical president today started pulling Iranian assets out of European banks in anticipation of being hauled before the UN Security Council for his nation’s nuclear violations. Just what is he trying to prove?

One of the more conspiratorial ideas I’ve been playing around with is this: What if Iran wants to pressure Israel into preemptively attacking their nuclear facilities? Let’s say Iran keeps this up and sanctions fail to gain muster because of Chinese and Russian objections through vetoes. What then? At that point, it would be highly likely that Israel would send attack planes into Iran to take out their nuclear facilities. I believe that President Ahmadinejad wants this.

Let’s look at the background of Iran’s new president. He’s obviously not afraid to say what he feels. So far, he’s called for Israel’s destruction, denied that the holocaust ever happened and sees himself as the great caretaker of the end days. The Sydney Morning Herald states, “The most remarkable aspect of his piety is his devotion to the Hidden Imam, the Messiah-like figure of Shiite Islam, and the President's belief that his Government must prepare the country for his return.” This should say enough about the man. The Herald further goes on to ask the ominous question, “is Mr. Ahmadinejad now tempting a clash with the West because he feels safe in the belief of the imminent return of the Hidden Imam? Worse, might he be trying to provoke chaos in the hope of hastening his reappearance?”

I believe this is the case.

We have Iran moving forward on its uranium enrichment program. By some estimates, Iran could have a nuclear weapon by this summer:

"I know they are trying to acquire the full fuel cycle. I know that acquiring the full fuel cycle means that a country is months away from nuclear weapons, and that applies to Iran and everybody else," Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in an interview with the British newspaper The Independent earlier this month.

So let’s say Israel does in fact attack Iran, as most people expect. Iran on the other hand, will be counting on it. If Israel attacks Iran, then President Ahmadinejad has all the justification he needs to launch his holy war against the Jews. And with tensions being what they are, he will probably have the support of other Arab nations like Syria. There will be pressure on Saudi Arabia to condemn the attacks, which they will, although they will most likely stay out of any armed conflict. To the world’s oil markets, all hell will break loose.

Oil prices will rocket above $100 a barrel in the first days of such trouble. The United States will be in a tough position of defending Israel’s right to preemptively defend itself, while nations like China and Russia will be pushing hard for sanctions against Israel. If Israel gets pushed into a corner, things could likely get worse – much worse. Sounds like a scenario worthy of an appearance by the Hidden Imam, don’t you think? Never mind that this Imam is probably none other than Lucifer himself, disguised as an angel leading his armies into glorious battle.

Then there’s Osama bin Laden. This would be a perfect time for him to attack the United States and divert their attention from defending Israel, leaving Israel on its own. Not good.

Something to think about.

UPDATE - Looks like I may have been on to something. This just released today (1-22-06) by the Associated Press:

Iran says Israeli threats are a 'childish game'

Iran on Sunday said Israel would be making a "fatal mistake" should it resort to military action against Tehran's nuclear program and dismissed veiled threats from the Jewish state as a "childish game."

On Saturday, Israel repeated its stand on the issue, saying it would not accept a nuclear Iran under any circumstances and was preparing for the possible failure of diplomatic efforts.

While Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz stopped short of an outright threat of military action, he said Israel "must have the capability to defend itself...and this we are preparing."

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said Israel was only trying to add to Western pressure on Iran to give up its nuclear program.

"We consider Mofaz's comments a form of psychological warfare. Israel knows just how much of a fatal mistake it would be (to attack Iran)," Asefi told reporters. "This is just a childish game by Israel."