Israeli PM on Life Support

According to the most recent information, Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, is clinging to life after suffering a major stroke last night. Ever since he suffered his first, relatively minor, stroke 2 weeks ago, I have been trying to envision what his death would mean for Israel at this critical stage in their history.

Up until last night, Sharon was running in a reelection campaign, under a new party, for his current position as Prime Minister. Originally a member (founder, in fact) of the conservative Likud Party, Sharon has been under increasing pressure from the more conservative members of his party for what they saw as his growing weakness towards the Palestinians, and thus the security of Israel.

After negotiating a pull-out of the disputed Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip and West Bank - a move that was considered unprecedented and seen as a major overture at peace with the Palestinians - the Likud party felt betrayed by Sharon, prompting the Prime Minister's recent renunciation of his Likud membership in favor of creating a new, more moderate party.

I find it interesting that Sharon's sudden strokes, in someone who had been previously given a clean bill of health, come so closely on the heels of this sudden political change. I'm not prepared to say that his strokes were the result of something intentional... but the coincidence of timing is a little suspect.

So, if Sharon dies, what happens in the middle east? My guess is that his Deputy Prime Minister would lead until new elections were called. The immediate front runner would be conservative Likud member - and past Prime Minister - Benjamin Netanyahu. I personally like Netanyahu, as he stands for a strong Israel. But I'm left wondering if Israel should really go back to its hawkish stance after everything that has been accomplished? The return of Bibi (as Netanyahu is often called) would almost certainly signal a return to Palestinian violence (not that it's been absent under Sharon's administration) and most likely draw both sides (Jews and Palestinians) back into their shells.

That is, unless Netanyahu could build better security for Israel through strength. Giving the Palestinians more territory through land concessions hasn't exactly brought peace in the last year. Plus, it's been prophesized by latter-day prophets that Israel will get stronger as we move closer to the Second Coming. But, does strength come through peace with Palestine or through a hard-lined stance? Time will tell. But I would definitely expect more violence in the short term.