Neighbor Against Neighbor?

The House of Representatives just passed an immigration bill - the Sensenbrenner-King bill (HR 4437) - by a vote of 233 to 189. It is now on its way to the Senate. On the surface, it sounds like a great bill that would enhance our border security. Actually, it does address our nation's border issues with a lot of helpful tools, particularly when it comes to would-be terrorists. However, there is one portion of the bill that just didn't sit well with me, and that's Title II (Sec. 205):

SEC. 205. MANDATORY SENTENCING RANGES FOR PERSONS AIDING OR ASSISTING CERTAIN REENTERING ALIENS.

Section 277 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1327) is amended--

(1) by striking `Any person' and inserting `(a) Subject to subsection (b), any person'; and

(2) by adding at the end the following:

`(b)(1) Any person who knowingly aids or assists any alien violating section 276(b) to reenter the United States, or who connives or conspires with any person or persons to allow, procure, or permit any such alien to reenter the United States, shall be fined under title 18, United States Code, imprisoned for a term imposed under paragraph (2), or both.

`(2) The term of imprisonment imposed under paragraph (1) shall be within the range to which the reentering alien is subject under section 276(b).'.

Basically, this has the potential to turn our nation into a police state. If your neighbor employs illegal aliens, and you know about it, you can go to jail. It becomes your duty to rat out your neighbor. No, more than a duty. A "duty" implies that you have a choice to make, and you do your duty out of conscience. Now, if you don't turn your neighbor in, you'll go down with him. That's called coercion, and it has no place in our society. We do things because they are honorable, not because we are forced to.

Do I sound a bit extreme? I hope so. Sure, this probably won't be an issue now. No one will no about the law and things will go on as they have been for years. But when the next terrorist strike comes, or when someone in power decides to make an example out of a political enemy, there are now very scary laws to make it happen. Do you have someone living with you that's a foreigner? Expect to be harassed. Do your racist neighbors hate the new Mexican family down the street? Well, now they can "turn them in." This is un-American. And again, while no one would do this now (at least we hope not), if things get paranoid enough - your neighborhood will go downhill, and fast.

Again, I normally try to avoid being so alarmist. But Brigham Young prophesized that in the very last days, "state will turn against state, neighbor against neighbor and mothers against their daughters." I'll post the reference when I get a chance. But a prophet of the Lord has told us this would happen. And of course we know that things will get worse in our day before the Lord comes. Surely this crazy scenario has a good chance of becoming a reality.

Ready for $262/barrel oil?

Even though I can't stand George Soros and his leftist agenda for America, his success as an investor is beyond dispute. His successes today are partly based on his ability to watch and determine which way markets will move. It has earned him billions. Now, according to a few of his economic predictions, the world is in for a rough ride ahead. But before I share the relating article, allow me to point out some worries I have.

For starters, a lot of what is happening in the world is no doubtly the result of secret combinations. Now, I don't have respect for the left wing attacks on the oil industry because they tend to go hand in hand with fixes that would end free-market economies and increase the power of government over its citizenry. However, that doesn't mean I think the oil companies are innocent because I don't.

The greed in our world is approaching epidemic proportions, and is even, dare I say - pandemic. Almost every person on this earth is obsessed with the accumulation of wealth. This is nothing new, of course, but the tools available today allow wealth to be generated more quickly than ever before which breeds a new kind of greed - the "I'll do whatever it takes to get on top" kind. This is dangerous. It's always been around in some form, but only over the past generation or so have we started removing responsibility from our culture in a way that makes this kind of greed especially dangerous. We have no morals, the relationship between right and wrong is scoffed at, our politicians promote a loose lifestyle without restrictions, and we allow our children to be raised in homes where money is the first and only priority. To think that the ideas so cherished by this generation intended to "free your mind" will escape greed is intellectually negligent.

Because of our love of money, waste and responsibility-free living, we will bring one of the below scenarios upon our own heads. So many today think it's ok to cheat to get ahead, that we don't notice when others do it to us. However, whenone cheats, one doesn't learn. When one doesn't learn, there will come a time when that person's lack of knowledge will come back to bite them in the rear. Here are those situations, paraphrased:

Two of the world's most successful investors say oil will be in short supply in the coming months.

By Nelson Schwartz, FORTUNE senior writer

January 27, 2006: 4:40 PM EST

DAVOS, Switzerland (FORTUNE) - Be afraid. Be very afraid.

That's the message from two of the world's most successful investors on the topic of high oil prices. One of them, Hermitage Capital's Bill Browder, has outlined six scenarios that could take oil up to a downright terrifying $262 a barrel.

The other, billionaire investor George Soros, wouldn't make any specific predictions about prices. But as a legendary commodities player, it's worth paying heed to the words of the man who once took on the Bank of England -- and won. "I'm very worried about the supply-demand balance, which is very tight," Soros says.

Soros pointed to the regime in Iran, which is heading towards a confrontation with the West over its nuclear power program and doesn't show any signs of compromising. "Iran is on a collision course and I have a difficulty seeing how such a collision can be avoided," he says.

Doomsdays 1 through 6

To come up with some likely scenarios in the event of an international crisis, his team performed what's known as a regression analysis, extrapolating the numbers from past oil shocks and then using them to calculate what might happen when the supply from an oil-producing country was cut off in six different situations. The fall of the House of Saud seems the most far-fetched of the six possibilities, and it's the one that generates that $262 a barrel.

More realistic -- and therefore more chilling -- would be the scenario where Iran declares an oil embargo a la OPEC in 1973, which Browder thinks could cause oil to double to $131 a barrel. Other outcomes include an embargo by Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez ($111 a barrel), civil war in Nigeria ($98 a barrel), unrest and violence in Algeria ($79 a barrel) and major attacks on infrastructure by the insurgency in Iraq ($88 a barrel).

It's clear that there is very, very little wiggle room, and that most consumers, including those in the United States, have acceded so far to the new reality of $60 or even $70 oil.

Although there are long-term answers like ethanol, what's needed is a crash conservation effort in the United States. This doesn't have to be command-and-control style. Moral suasion counts for a lot, and if the president suggested staying home with family every other Sunday or otherwise cutting back on unnecessary drives, he could please the family values crowd while also changing the psychology of the oil market by showing that the U.S. government is serious about easing any potential bottlenecks.

UPDATE (1-30-06): EXXON MAKES BIGGEST PROFIT IN AMERICAN HISTORY

The Palestinian Elections

So, your country just elected a bunch of terrorists to Parliament, now what? Before I can even attempt to offer any answers, it would be best to explain a little background.

Hamas, a powerful terrorist organization that has its chief stated aim listed as “the destruction of Israel,” has just won a majority of seats in the new Palestinian legislature. This is the same Hamas that has committed scores of suicide bombings inside Israel, has supplied arms to just about any jihadist organization that wants them, and has repeatedly attacked and murdered civilians for decades.

At first glace, this is democracy gone horribly wrong. And while I agree that this does not look good (at least on the surface) for peace in the middle east, I think the results of the election might be more positive than most people realize.

It is imperative that we, the United States, do not come right out and condemn the election. For one, we would look extremely hypocritical by promoting democracy to then only recognize the outcome if it is favorable to us. Also, we must remember that we were the ones pushing the Palestinians to a vote so early in the first place. Keeping these things in mind, however, we must not abandon our sovereign right to choose whom we associate with on a diplomatic level. If Hamas doesn’t clean up their act, and fast, we can and should completely turn our backs to them.

But here’s the great opportunity: Hamas didn’t expect to win a majority. In fact, throughout the election they have claimed to be very comfortable with the thought of taking a secondary role in government. They insisted that their only wish was to participate in a new coalition government, not lead one. But why? Because in a leadership position, Hamas would be forced to take a firm position on Israel.

As a terrorist organization, Hamas’ primary goal is the destruction of Israel. As a government, this becomes an untenable political position. For a government to adopt such a stance would amount to a de facto declaration of war. The United States has insisted that it will not deal with a Hamas-led government unless they renounce their aim to destroy Israel. If they act responsibly, they will renounce this decades old objective. This would be a major victory for Israel and the United States. If they choose the other side, then Israel can walk in there and forcibly remove the threat Hamas represents.

My hope is that the world waits before pushing Hamas into a corner. Welcome the election results, but remind Palestine that they must now act responsibly if they want to play with the big boys. If they can’t let go of their idea that Israel must be destroyed, then I’m afraid the only place for Hamas in the future will be in history books.

The Iranian End Game

What is up with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?

Iran’s fanatical president today started pulling Iranian assets out of European banks in anticipation of being hauled before the UN Security Council for his nation’s nuclear violations. Just what is he trying to prove?

One of the more conspiratorial ideas I’ve been playing around with is this: What if Iran wants to pressure Israel into preemptively attacking their nuclear facilities? Let’s say Iran keeps this up and sanctions fail to gain muster because of Chinese and Russian objections through vetoes. What then? At that point, it would be highly likely that Israel would send attack planes into Iran to take out their nuclear facilities. I believe that President Ahmadinejad wants this.

Let’s look at the background of Iran’s new president. He’s obviously not afraid to say what he feels. So far, he’s called for Israel’s destruction, denied that the holocaust ever happened and sees himself as the great caretaker of the end days. The Sydney Morning Herald states, “The most remarkable aspect of his piety is his devotion to the Hidden Imam, the Messiah-like figure of Shiite Islam, and the President's belief that his Government must prepare the country for his return.” This should say enough about the man. The Herald further goes on to ask the ominous question, “is Mr. Ahmadinejad now tempting a clash with the West because he feels safe in the belief of the imminent return of the Hidden Imam? Worse, might he be trying to provoke chaos in the hope of hastening his reappearance?”

I believe this is the case.

We have Iran moving forward on its uranium enrichment program. By some estimates, Iran could have a nuclear weapon by this summer:

"I know they are trying to acquire the full fuel cycle. I know that acquiring the full fuel cycle means that a country is months away from nuclear weapons, and that applies to Iran and everybody else," Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in an interview with the British newspaper The Independent earlier this month.

So let’s say Israel does in fact attack Iran, as most people expect. Iran on the other hand, will be counting on it. If Israel attacks Iran, then President Ahmadinejad has all the justification he needs to launch his holy war against the Jews. And with tensions being what they are, he will probably have the support of other Arab nations like Syria. There will be pressure on Saudi Arabia to condemn the attacks, which they will, although they will most likely stay out of any armed conflict. To the world’s oil markets, all hell will break loose.

Oil prices will rocket above $100 a barrel in the first days of such trouble. The United States will be in a tough position of defending Israel’s right to preemptively defend itself, while nations like China and Russia will be pushing hard for sanctions against Israel. If Israel gets pushed into a corner, things could likely get worse – much worse. Sounds like a scenario worthy of an appearance by the Hidden Imam, don’t you think? Never mind that this Imam is probably none other than Lucifer himself, disguised as an angel leading his armies into glorious battle.

Then there’s Osama bin Laden. This would be a perfect time for him to attack the United States and divert their attention from defending Israel, leaving Israel on its own. Not good.

Something to think about.

UPDATE - Looks like I may have been on to something. This just released today (1-22-06) by the Associated Press:

Iran says Israeli threats are a 'childish game'

Iran on Sunday said Israel would be making a "fatal mistake" should it resort to military action against Tehran's nuclear program and dismissed veiled threats from the Jewish state as a "childish game."

On Saturday, Israel repeated its stand on the issue, saying it would not accept a nuclear Iran under any circumstances and was preparing for the possible failure of diplomatic efforts.

While Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz stopped short of an outright threat of military action, he said Israel "must have the capability to defend itself...and this we are preparing."

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said Israel was only trying to add to Western pressure on Iran to give up its nuclear program.

"We consider Mofaz's comments a form of psychological warfare. Israel knows just how much of a fatal mistake it would be (to attack Iran)," Asefi told reporters. "This is just a childish game by Israel."

Abramoff May Have Killed Democracy

As a republican, I find it impossible to reconcile my beliefs with the actions of a fellow lobbyist and partisan. In fact, if I may be so bold, I attest that Jack Abramoff may have done more damage that he realizes. His actions, and those of the legislators whom he influenced, will ultimately bring about the demise of our system of government. Bold statement, I know. Let me explain.

On the surface, lobbying seems like a bad thing. Most Americans associate lobbyists with bribery, cheating and backroom deals. While in the case of Abramoff this may have been proven true, the reality is that for the other 99% of lobbyists, it’s not.

I work at an association that represents nearly 30,000 people from across the county. Our members are primarily first responders, people who are generally considered heroes. I think someone would be hard pressed to call us a “special interest group” because that phrase usually has a negative connotation (thanks to the media), even though that’s exactly what we are. We represent the special interests of our members, because their interests are different – special – than those of the general population.

Our association does not have a PAC (political action committee) that raises, and then donates, money to Congressional campaigns. As a result, we communicate with Congress the old fashioned way – by going to Capitol Hill and discussing our issues with Congressional staff in person, at lunch briefings, etc. We do not “buy votes” as some might say. We use our collective influence to let Members of Congress know that what they do might hamper (or help) the ability of our members to do their jobs.

Thanks to Abramoff, politicians are now scared to communicate with their constituencies. All of this knee-jerk reaction “let’s reform government” talk ends up being self-defeating in the end. Because jack Abramoff took advantage of people by cheating and stealing, he has now cast his whole party in a negative light. And eager to not be seen as criminal by the American public, Congress is willing to trade away the rights of their constituents to lobby in order for them to be seen as immune to the corruptible system.

While limiting things like lunches and trips may sound reasonable on the surface (because we are so accustomed now of thinking of our elected leaders as cheats), these types of moves don’t do anything but force corruption deeper underground. Limiting our ability to educate lawmakers by inviting them to lunch so that we can explain our positions without interruption will not stop corruption. It will kill the smaller voices who need to be heard, and increase the power of the elites who actually do have inside access to politicians.

Those with the most power, money and influence will not be affected by this change. If anything, it will encourage more organizations to start playing the campaign contribution game, since that will become the only way for a group (or individual) to be heard. And now that the other perks are gone, Congress will eschew any further attempt to curb campaign abuse because that will be their only source of gaining influence and power. And campaign money is where the real corruption exists.

Jack Abramoff, in his greed, has just effectively slammed the door in the face of legitimate (and poor) special interests. He has created an environment where the problem will go deeper underground, and thus have a more insidious effect on politics. Power is addictive, and money is the fuel that drives the race to gain more power. Curbing lobbying will not fix this.

By paying lip service to the concerns of the left-wing and the media, we have just created a more powerful class of elites. Those few who will have so much money as to have direct access to whomever they please. Not because they paid for a few skyboxes or dinners, but because they don’t have to.

Israeli PM on Life Support

According to the most recent information, Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, is clinging to life after suffering a major stroke last night. Ever since he suffered his first, relatively minor, stroke 2 weeks ago, I have been trying to envision what his death would mean for Israel at this critical stage in their history.

Up until last night, Sharon was running in a reelection campaign, under a new party, for his current position as Prime Minister. Originally a member (founder, in fact) of the conservative Likud Party, Sharon has been under increasing pressure from the more conservative members of his party for what they saw as his growing weakness towards the Palestinians, and thus the security of Israel.

After negotiating a pull-out of the disputed Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip and West Bank - a move that was considered unprecedented and seen as a major overture at peace with the Palestinians - the Likud party felt betrayed by Sharon, prompting the Prime Minister's recent renunciation of his Likud membership in favor of creating a new, more moderate party.

I find it interesting that Sharon's sudden strokes, in someone who had been previously given a clean bill of health, come so closely on the heels of this sudden political change. I'm not prepared to say that his strokes were the result of something intentional... but the coincidence of timing is a little suspect.

So, if Sharon dies, what happens in the middle east? My guess is that his Deputy Prime Minister would lead until new elections were called. The immediate front runner would be conservative Likud member - and past Prime Minister - Benjamin Netanyahu. I personally like Netanyahu, as he stands for a strong Israel. But I'm left wondering if Israel should really go back to its hawkish stance after everything that has been accomplished? The return of Bibi (as Netanyahu is often called) would almost certainly signal a return to Palestinian violence (not that it's been absent under Sharon's administration) and most likely draw both sides (Jews and Palestinians) back into their shells.

That is, unless Netanyahu could build better security for Israel through strength. Giving the Palestinians more territory through land concessions hasn't exactly brought peace in the last year. Plus, it's been prophesized by latter-day prophets that Israel will get stronger as we move closer to the Second Coming. But, does strength come through peace with Palestine or through a hard-lined stance? Time will tell. But I would definitely expect more violence in the short term.

Wild Weather

Looks like 2006 is starting with a rather ominous outbreak of wild weather. We have fires in Oklahoma and Texas, and flooding in California and Nevada. While none of these events are particularly large scale, they are interesting to "sign watchers" nonetheless. I see these events as part of a larger scale of human-impacting weather systems.

The Prophet recently warned us about an uptick in natural disasters. In fact, during the October Priesthood session of General Conference while referring to the recent disasters, he states:

"What we have experienced in the past was all foretold, and the end is not yet. Just as there have been calamities in the past, we expect more in the future.

We can heed warnings. We have been told that many had been given concerning the vulnerability of New Orleans. We are told by seismologists that the Salt Lake Valley is a potential earthquake zone. This is the primary reason that we are extensively renovating the Tabernacle on Temple Square. This historic and remarkable building must be made to withstand the shaking of the earth."

There are certainly bigger catastrophes that we will witness. 2006, only in it's first day, has opened with disasters in TX, OK, CA and NV. Watch and be ready.